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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/13/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:25
The Mariners' best prospect is probably Kyle Lewis, who has a .310 OBP in the Cal League
Nate
10:26
How much does the bidding war for Harper change this offseason if numbers don't improve much in the 2nd half?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
It depends. Right now Harper has almost exactly the same expected wOBA as he had last season
2017: .390 xwOBA
2018: .397 xwOBA
2017: .416 wOBA
2018: .354 wOBA
10:28
If Harper just has an unlucky second half, the market will still be incredibly strong. If even his xwOBA tanks, though, that would make a difference. That would take more of the shine off the apple
Erik
10:29
What do teams typically do at the deadline when they're competitive a year earlier than planned? What advice would you give the Braves and Phillies in that regard?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Last year's Brewers added Anthony Swarzak, Jeremy Jeffress, and Neil Walker
10:30
The 2015 Cubs added Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter
and Fernando Rodney and Austin Jackson!
10:31
The 2015 Astros added Scott Kazmir, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, and Oliver Perez
10:32
The Astros made the biggest push, with the Gomez deal. Somewhat importantly, Gomez wasn't a rental, not that it worked out for them in the end
10:33
Now, every circumstance is different. If the Phillies believe trading for Machado now would give them a leg up in offseason negotiations, that's something to factor in
But generally speaking, I think when you're early, you make more subtle deadline tweaks that don't subtract from the longer-term future. Or if you want to make a splash, you make a splash for a player who's around for more than a couple of months
gurp
10:34
I got Jose Ramirez the other day at +2800 to win AL MVP. Do you think he has a realistic chance to win even with Trout's historical performance?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
He finished in third place last year, and he's been better than the two guys who finished in front of him
10:35
Trout has cooled off a little bit and Ramirez has only continued to get more and more exposure. Mookie Betts might end up the real competition
dirty dan
10:36
Who would say no: Robles for Realmuto?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Before the year, the Nationals. Now, probably the Marlins, at least for the time being given that Robles has missed much of the season due to injury
10:37
Going to guess the Marlins would want to trade Realmuto for at least three players to improve their chances of hitting with one
dirty dan
10:39
Gaussman and Machado for Frazier, Tate and Andujar, who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Yankees
Wouldn't want to give up Andujar for Machado, and even though Gausman is cost-controlled for a bit, he's not so much better than other rental starters the Yankees could get for cheaper
10:40
Why deal with the Orioles front office when you might just be able to go get Tyson Ross for a couple of months?
Estuary
10:40
Do you think the Richards news makes it more likely or less likely that Ohtani will pitch again this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Independent of one another
10:41
The Angels aren't realistically playing for anything anymore, and with Ohtani they're going to try to be as careful as possible
Kelvin
10:42
Hey Jeff, what's the meaning behind the Rays' new stadium? I thought they wanted to get out of FL, or at least move to an area that's populated with... um, baseball fans?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I can't speak to all of the details regarding the problems with the Trop, but the Ybor City stadium site is supposed to be a lot easier for more people to access
10:45
The Rays are actually pretty popular on TV. A market is there. Those people just don't go to the ballpark. It's not a lack of interest
Charles Finley
10:46
Would the Mets do Wheeler and Familia for Clint Frazier, straight-up?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Close. They'd probably ask for a second piece of lesser but moderate interest
10:47
Really just comes down to where the Mets scouts are on Frazier's potential. If they still think of him as a special prospect, they're not going to get a better headliner
Gest
10:48
Can you approximate what it would take to trade for Scooter Gennett this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
You'd be trading for a year and a half of team control
Gennett has been worth 5.5 WAR since the start of last season
I can guarantee you that front offices out there are still skeptical, given what Gennett was for so many years
10:51
When Oakland traded for a year of Ben Zobrist, they gave up Boog Powell, John Jaso, and Daniel Robertson
Robertson was the No. 66 prospect according to Baseball America at the time
10:52
Let's say it would take something similar -- a No. 51-100 prospect as the headliner
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