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Klawchat 7/8/21
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Joe
2:16
Keith, I am in full agreement with you about the overuse of college pitchers with major league careers ahead of them. But is there a discussion to be had about what a college coach owes the other players on his team? For some, major league baseball is not an option, and winning the College World Series may be the highlight of their sports life. What obligation does the coach have to those players to do everything he can to win those games?
Keith Law
2:16
Any such obligation should not come at the expense of one particular player.
Ben
2:16
If you were advising Mayer what number would you be looking to get from the Pirates? It doesn't seem like it makes any sense for him to ask for less than the 2nd bonus slot, given Pittsburgh's ownership situation and how much the Rangers and Tigers seem to like him.
Keith Law
2:16
He shouldn't take less than slot at 3. I don't really know how strong Texas' interest is.
Adam
2:17
Had been a few straight down years but Jhailyn Ortiz, who you've ranked well previously, seems to be coming into his own. Can he be a future regular still?
Keith Law
2:17
He's repeating high A, and is 22, so I don't want to get too excited yet, but it's nice to see a stat line more in line with what I expected. I hope he gets a month in Reading to finish the year.
Justin
2:17
Obviously "taking a slightly less talented player in order to spend more on picks later" is an accepted strategy.   At what point do you think it doesn't make sense anymore?  Like, if the Pirates took, I dunno, Frelick #1 for $4 million to be able to spend an extra $4 mil later as opposed to taking Mayer for $7 mil and being able to spend $1 mil later, should Pirates fans be annoyed/upset?
Keith Law
2:18
Yes, there's no way they're getting enough talent to justify the opportunity cost of taking Frelick at 1 over anyone else.
TDC
2:18
Why do the Nationals only ever seem to target pitchers with their early round picks? This trend has left Mike Rizzo with possibly the weakest position player group of any farm system.
Keith Law
2:18
They have some arms, though. Cavalli appears to be a stud.  If Rutledge is healthy, he's a potential high-end reliever. I agree that mixing in a bat every now and then would be a good idea, but they obviously have a clear philosophy.
Sweeney
2:21
If and when the Pirates save some $ on the first overall, who would you see as a few guys they could target overslot in the second round? I've had my eyes set on Joe Mack assuming one of the SS goes #1, but is there any way they can push him down enough?
Keith Law
2:22
Mack's almost certainly gone. Look more to the HS arms, the  Painter, Mozzicato, Coppola, Morales, Bruns group.
Rob
2:22
There's no salvaging the Arenado trade but I'm curious if Eli Montero is at least salvaging some of his former promise? All I can see is the numbers but those at least appear positive.
Keith Law
2:22
I thought he was a prospect in low A, but then he hurt his hamate and jumped to AA and struggled. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him turn into a regular.
Justin
2:22
People who think that acquiring Adam Frazier should require a huge prospect package are off base, right?  Do you think they view him as anything more than just "solid .280/.350/400 type leadoff guy with decent defense"?  Obviously that's worth *something* in a deal, but I feel like he's become overrated by fans/media because of some babip luck.
Keith Law
2:22
Yeah, this is a fluky year, no way you give up a top prospect for him now.
Christian (Raleigh, NC)
2:22
Hi Keith -- Thank you for recent write-up on some of the Braves prospects you have seen (Michael Harris, Freddy Tarnok, etc.). Do you think Harris has an approach at the plate that will allow him to tighten up some of the swing-and-miss issues he has shown with non-fastballs? As a Braves fan I am hoping he can actually develop some kind of plan at the plate unlike other Braves prospects (for example - Waters) who really never have. Thanks.
Keith Law
2:23
The swing is fine, but the recognition isn't. Saw the same problems with Jesse Franklin, but more so. I wonder if AA pitching will eat Franklin up.
Alex
2:23
I know Jobe is a HS pitcher and there is a lot of inherit risk- with taking one high first- but I have heard he has two plus pitches (plus plus?) and the makings of third.   He also does not seem to have been ridden into the ground (IIRC, he got more attention at SS) like other HS pitchers Dylan Bundy.    What am I missing?
Keith Law
2:24
He's a HS pitcher. That is his 'class' and the base rate for that class is lower in odds of seeing the majors and odds of success.
Justin
2:24
Who would be your "dark horse" for the #1 overall pick?   Anyone outside of the consensus top 7ish guys?  I have a weird feeling about Frelick or Cowser.
Keith Law
2:24
Kahlil Watson.
Kip
2:24
Thanks for all the great draft coverage.  If you saw it,  what were your thoughts on the Ken Burns Hemingway doc?
Keith Law
2:24
Haven't seen it. Never a big fan of his writing.
Darny
2:24
What kind of $ increase did Will Bednar earn himself closing out the CWS? 15-25 range now?
Keith Law
2:24
I don't know, maybe $5000.
Mac
2:24
What is Harry Ford’s best position?
Keith Law
2:24
Batters box? He might be a right fielder.
Mac
2:24
Is Colson Montgomery the riskiest player considered to be a first round talent?
Keith Law
2:25
Him or Benny Montgomery. Benny for his swing, Colson for his age/position.
Justin
2:25
Do you think Henry Davis is a solid MLB C when it's all said and done?
Keith Law
2:26
I do - but I know some scouts think he's not a catcher in the long term. He's good enough now that with professional coaching I think he'll be an above-average defender.
Josh
2:26
For all the (valid) talk about how modern baseball strategy is making the sport less watchable, I really enjoy watching what the Giants and Gabe Kapler are doing in terms of getting most of their position players into every game (15 batters with >100 PA; very few true "full-time" players). It feels engaging as a fan to think along with the decision-making and it keeps me interested through high-stakes pinch hitting choices and "line changes" when a new opposing pitcher comes in. It's non-traditional, but I find it compelling and sort of fresh as a viewer. Thoughts?
Keith Law
2:26
I agree. And FTR I don't think shifting makes baseball less watchable. the damn rabbit ball does.
Dan
2:26
Has Dillon Dingler solidified himself as a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law
2:26
He might be. He's very good, certainly.
Jesse B
2:26
Has Jordan Walker’s pitch perception been better than you anticipated, and if so are we looking a potential star down the road?
Keith Law
2:27
Yes, way better, and yes.
In A Big Country
2:27
I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...damn you Keith, been stuck in my head for two days now.  By the way, ever heard the "Wonderland" EP, because it's pretty great.
Keith Law
2:29
It's such a quintessentially '80s song. Adamson was brilliant. They just got pigeonholed by MTV. Wonderland is great, too.
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