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MLBTR Chat: 4/13/22
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Matt
6:16
What happens first: a Montas trade or a Conforto signing? Predictions on where each player lands?
Anthony Franco
6:16
The latter should happen first. I'm guessing Montas sticks around until the deadline
Josh
6:16
Can you see the Twins signing Upton now that Kirilloff is back on the injured list with a wrist injury?
Anthony Franco
6:17
They were looking into him even before Kirilloff went down, so adding him as a righty complement in the corner outfield and at DH is fine
6:18
But I'd rather give Larnach the bulk of the playing time while Kirilloff's and just rotate Upton through against lefties to keep each of Larnach, Kepler and Arraez fresh
Talkingbaseball
6:18
As a Mariners fan what's a realistic expectation on Eugenio Suarez?
Anthony Franco
6:19
League average hitting with below-average third base defense. Something like .230/.310/.430?
Fred
6:20
I know STL is always shy about trading blue chip prospects, but with it being Pujols’ and Yadi’s final season, do they really go for it if they’re in contention?
Anthony Franco
6:20
Another one that's tough to answer without knowing the roster will look like in July, but I'm skeptical they'll be super aggressive
6:21
Part of the reason they've been fairly cautious and just added around the margins is that the team is pretty solid across the board and they don't have many glaring needs
6:22
Maybe an injury opens that up or something, but right now, I don't think there are any must-upgrade spots on the roster
Steve
6:22
I hate that teams don’t try to compete every year. Look at the reds. Can’t anything be done to avoid tanking?
Anthony Franco
6:23
The Reds aren't tanking. Ownership got cheap and they cut payroll, but they're not trying to lose to inflate their draft stock for multiple years
6:24
So I think it's two separate questions. Are there things to be done to legislate out multi-rebuilds? Maybe. Flip the draft order so the best non-playoff teams pick first and have the highest bonus pool, award teams extra draft choices for making the playoffs
6:25
These things reduce the baseball incentive for rebuilds and make it harder for teams like the Pirates or Orioles to have success with what they're currently trying
6:26
Legislating out just not committing fully when the young talent bubbles up, like the Reds and Guardians did this winter? I think that's harder
A salary floor would be a direct measure for forcing spending, but the league isn't going to do that with a cap
Kevin
6:26
What's your opinion on Gabe Kapler's decision to forgo baseball's unwritten rules on pouring it on with a 10 run lead? He says it's in the Giants best interest to get as deep into the Padres bullpen as possible in order to win the next game.
Anthony Franco
6:27
Yeah I just can't bring myself to care about this. You're in the major leagues, Mauricio Dubón doesn't have to stop trying so you can feel better about yourself
Matt
6:27
How soon do you start looking at slash lines more seriously?
Anthony Franco
6:28
There's no specific cut-off date before which nothing's meaningful and after which everything's meaningful, unfortunately
6:29
From a broad framework perspective, I'll start looking at process oriented stuff -- how often is a guy chasing pitches outside the strike zone, his contact rate -- by like the end of April
If those things are different, I'll put more stock into changes in the bottom line numbers
confused
6:29
Why don't they allow trading all draft picks? Didn't sound like that was even discussed in this round of negotiations?
Anthony Franco
6:30
Just inertia, I think
Seems like MLB once feared that teams would not want to pay amateurs and trade all their picks, so they banned it. That's very outmoded thinking, but neither the league nor the PA cares enough to push for changing it
6:31
It doesn't help either the union's or ownership's financial interest, and they all had bigger fish to fry
Braves fan
6:31
How long till the Braves regret not giving Freemen what he wanted and trading away the farm for Olsen?
Anthony Franco
6:32
They handled it the way I would have, so I don't think they will
Cobra Kai
6:32
Alyssa Nakken was the first woman coach in an MLB game last night (congratulations!). How soon until we get women (field) managers?
Anthony Franco
6:34
Rachel Balkovec was the first woman hired to manage a minor league team last offseason. Kim Ng was hired as a baseball ops leader the year before. I think that's the start of a trend and would guess there's a woman managing an MLB team by the end of this decade
Deep State
6:34
Rockies gunning for that NL West division title!
Anthony Franco
6:35
Impressive start for them. I hope they're better than anyone expects
I don't think they are, but it'd be cool
Tom Emanski
6:35
Early thoughts on Seiya Suzuki?
Anthony Franco
6:35
He's been great
It’s math
6:36
Is the difference in reaction times for a 90mph pitch vs a 95mph pitch really that significant? Do you think teams may be overlooking command and deception?
Anthony Franco
6:37
All things being equal, there's a huge difference between 90 and 95 that'll be borne out in swing-and-miss and home run rates
6:38
But of course, throwing 95 isn't alone sufficient. Command and deception are more difficult to quantify, so while they're meaningful, I think teams are going to be skeptical about their ability to accurately parse out command or deception
6:39
Broadly speaking, we have an idea. But we can't rank pitchers by deception
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