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Jeffrey Todd

3:10

It's just math and probability. If there are x years left at y dollars after the opt-out, that remaining obligation can either look good or bad. If the former -- the upside scenario -- the player opts out. So the team's weighted anticipated value from the contract goes down.

Or you could listen to an actual economist, not a lawyer who thinks he knows something about everything. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/the-dollar-value-of-recent-opt-...

Medic Mike

3:11

Cubs not even listed as a choice in the poll?

Jeffrey Todd

3:11

Oh come on now.

If they had just signed Darvish, perhaps. As things stand? Nah not close for me.

Giants

3:12

We still suck, right?

Jeffrey Todd

3:12

Downside scenario is you still suck. Upside is wild card contender.

Bob

3:13

What do you see the Stros doing with Collin Mchugh? He's a quality starter, but probably the 7th best guy on the depth chart, and out of option years. Bullpen or trade?

Jeffrey Todd

3:14

He'd have made sense as part of a Zach Britton trade. But that's not possible. Could still imagine some trade scenarios, sure, esp if it somehow brings back a lefty pen piece. Or perhaps a lefty bench bat. But they'll probably be happy to keep him in the pen and retain the depth. (He likely will not be so overjoyed at that idea.)

Anthony

3:15

Did you really exclude the cubs from that list? One off half year and they arent even a thought for best rotation

Jeffrey Todd

3:17

Not just about an off half year ... they overperformed in '16 and couldn't repeat it and now don't have the dude who was The Dude in '16. Lester is another year older. Q is more good than great. They just paid a fair bit for Chatwood but that was a bitof a leap of faith. Is Hendricks really Maddux redux? Dunno. Etc.

Trav

3:17

Am I being shopped for keepin' it realmuto

Jeffrey Todd

3:17

Travis Shaw? Meh.

3:18

But "Keeping It Realmuto" should be the Marlins 2018 slogan after they spurn the demand to trade him. Would help to spice things up.

Dash

3:18

Vlad should be wearing an Expos cap on his hall plaque

Jeffrey Todd

3:19

I mean I get it, but it is really just his call, I suppose.

3:19

Do you think the Phillies regret signing Santana for so much, so early into free agency? They probably could've gone after Hosmer or a outfield option to keep Hoskins at 1B, at a relatively much better price

Jeffrey Todd

3:20

I think they had to specifically want Santana to have pursued him at all, so I doubt they regret it or care too much even if it looks like a slight overpay in retrospect. (Which I don't know that it really will.)

Adam

3:22

Are the Indians on ANYONE to help their anemic OF situation?

Jeffrey Todd

3:22

Bear in mind, they already made their move to some extent by signing Brantley. (Otherwise, see my answer above.)

I also think they were going to put in a bid for Santana but let him go after their talks on Kipnis to Mets fell apart.

Joe

3:23

Who will be #2 in Dodgers rotation?

Jeffrey Todd

3:24

Will change as they rotate guys through regular DL stints : )

Nick Carlson

3:24

Due to teams wanting to make less commitments, why haven't we seen larger shorter contracts?

Jeffrey Todd

3:25

To an extent we have - Davis and Santana and arguably a few others this year are examples.

3:26

Could definitely imagine that as an approach some teams take. But as noted earlier w/r/t JDM, that also may tend to create greater luxury tax pressure. (Well, in the near-term, at least. Could argue it would be part of a wiser long-term tax management approach I suppose.)

The people have spoken: no Mets in the poll! I am avenged.

Matthew

3:26

Trade proposal:

Jeffrey Todd

3:26

Thanks for not filling this in.

3:27

Just kidding, just kidding ... keep throwing your zaniest trade ideas at me, everyone. (Not really.)

Alex A,

3:27

I want Vlad Jr in Atlanta, what would the Jays want?

Jeffrey Todd

3:27

Acuna?

C'mon now that is not gonna happen!

Pax Vobiscum

3:28

Walked away from the DC law scene 21 years ago and haven't looked back (2000 billable hrs per year is a tough road to hoe). Darvish or Arrieta to the Phillies is a disaster right? For the Phillies that is.

Jeffrey Todd

3:28

Guess I've already gone with a few other law-related questions for this chat, so why not one more.

3:29

I don't think Yu or Jake to PHI is a disaster waiting to happen. They have gobs of spending capacity and have been careful in filling out future payrolls. Don't see them going out on a limb to land one of these guys so much as possibly being there with a strong offer if they really like one or the other.

Daj Kamienia

3:29

Do you see the A's fighting for the Wild Card spot in 2018?

Jeffrey Todd

3:29

Wouldn't rule it out, but ... feels like lots of things have to break right, doesn't it?

big nats fan

3:29

talk about the nats

Jeffrey Todd

3:30

Priority 1: Mike Rizzo

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