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AvatarJay Jaffe
5:28
Hmmm, the Nationals are one of the oldest teams in the league, and they have have Rendon and possibly Strasburg hitting free agency. I can't imagine they retain both and either of those pieces lost is a huge one.  Plus, they have a bottom-five farm system right now, though to be fair they did graduate Soto and Robles in the past couple of years.  

The Cardinals are even older, they're less likely to spend big money than the Nationals, the early signs on Goldschmidt's long-term future ain't great, Ozuna's a free agent after this postseason, and their offense was, as discussed, pretty subpar by the standards of playoff teams.

Take your pick.
Adam
5:29
Is there any scenario at all where Strasburg pitches tonight?
Tony Wolfe
5:29
Yeah, the Cardinals are scary too, but I tend to believe in their pitching development.
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:29
fair point
Re Strasburg, it's an elimination game. Odds are higher than you think, right there.
Cashman
5:30
I definitely still should have acquired one or both, but if we win tonight I think people might leave me alone about Dallas and Corbin, even if SSS is a bad way to evaluate
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:31
Winning the Division Series isn't a yardstick of success in the Bronx, and the real Cashman would be the first to say that.
5:33
those are two very different acquisitions, and each as some logic to it. I thought Corbin would be a particularly good fit for the Yankees, but if they can sign Cole with that money (plus more) instead, then it may have been worth waiting.
Alfredo
5:33
But the Nats need to win Game 5 too to advance. If Strasburg is unavailable to start Game 5, what are their odds to win that game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:35
You still have to win today because if you don't, you're donezo.  I would think that if Strasburg pitches, it's probably a shorter stint, and that he's not down for a very long one under even the most desperate of circumstances. Still, if they need him tonight to pitch innings 11-14 or something, they'll do it and figure out a way to Frankenstein their Game 5 pitching together
5:36
bases loaded, 2 outs, Braves ahead 4-3, and Duvall up against Brebbia. Big spot
Ian
5:37
Sorry if you already addressed the chat schedule, but will people be chatting all night?  I want to stay up for the Yankees/Twins, but I can't do it alone!
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:38
Ben Clemens and Josh Herzenberg will be chatting during the Nats/Dodgers game. Doesn't mean that they won't address Yankees-Twins game but the timing is lined up with the former one.
Dystopian Future
5:38
Well it isn't just Goldschmidt; Fowler has a big contract and is declining, and can Knizner really fill Molina's shoes? Carpenter is washed, I think. DeJong seems to be going backwards.
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:40
DeJong had a bad second half offensively but just set a career high in WAR. Yes, there's reasons to pick the Cardinals there, as noted. I don't have the time or space to get exhaustive with them here
And Duvall strikes out, so it's still 4-3 Braves heading into the bottom of the 6th and OMG it's only the bottom of the 6th.
Tony Wolfe
5:41
some uncharacteristically pessimistic contributions from Dystopian Future
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:52
Acuña gets to third base on what's been scored as a "sun triple" after Dexter Fowler loses sight of it.
and I can't wait* to hear people explain how he should have had an inside-the-park homer there

*can definitely wait until the year 2525
Dystopian Future
5:53
How do you feel about there being a little "SHIFT IS ON" message on the score gizmo instead of actually showing the shift?
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:53
why not both? There's enough time between pitches to show the shift, but it doesn't hurt to have a little dot on the score bug.
Tony Wolfe
5:54
Yeah, they do have that little camera under the scoreboard to show you the runner taking a lead, it's weird they wouldn't just show it there
stever20
5:55
If the Nats could keep 1 and only 1 between Rendon and Strasburg, which would be the better keep?
AvatarJay Jaffe
5:58
Tough call. Both just had monster years, both have injury histories. The age difference (Rendon 29, Strasburg 31) might be the difference maker. I guess I'd lean Rendon.
5:59
wow, for a moment it looked like Hechavarria might have hit that one out, but in the end the Braves strand Acuña at 3B.
Ian
5:59
How many hits would Markakis have to get to make the Hall of Fame just as a compiler?  Obviously he'll never reach the standards.
Tony Wolfe
6:00
Yeah, I think Rendon's skills have a good chance to age well. Though I also thought that about Joey Votto and *tugs collar*
AvatarJay Jaffe
6:01
Re: Markakis, I honestly don't know. I do know that I probably wouldn't vote for him even if he did get to 3,000 because he just hasn't been that valuable 33.0 bWAR, 28.8 JAWS — 1.3 less than Harold Baines), though I'd have tip my hat to him for the persistence.
5 Run Homer
6:02
How did that not go out
AvatarJay Jaffe
6:02
only 94.1 mph off the bat. 33 degree launch angle so we all perked up, booth included (see my recent piece on that subject) but not fast enough with that arc.
Not good hitter reaches 3,000
6:03
We have this chat every few years, right? Damon, Renteria, Rollins... and then they don't make it, just like Markakis won't.
AvatarJay Jaffe
6:04
indeed. the fact that Markakis was just a hair above replacement level this year (0.8 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR) suggests he's not gonna stick as a regular for 600-whatever more hits
Tony Wolfe
6:05
Huh, off the top of my head I was thinking Damon's run at 3,000 was much more realistic, but he was only at 2,425 through his age 35 season. Markakis is at 2,355 at 35.
AvatarJay Jaffe
6:05
6:06
Wow, Josh Tomlin looked great there. TCB  1-2-3 on nine pitches, and the Cardinals are six outs away from winter.
tb.25
6:08
Anybody off the top of your head that you can remember recently was an all star and the following season was replacement level (MarkakisAll-star to 0.4 fWAR.
AvatarJay Jaffe
6:09
Brian Dozier went from 5.1 to 0.9 from 2017 to '18, MIguel Cabrera from 4.8 to -0.2 from 2016 to '17— obviously, injuries in both cases. Can't recall a non-injury one so easily. Fun tool to play with that might jog my (or your) memory in less game-focused times: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=B&seasonSt...
Great hitter and 500
6:10
The real milestone that concerns me is... is Miggy going to have to have some OF fall down in Comerica to get 500 HR?
Tony Wolfe
6:11
Wow that made me sad
I don't think he's getting there
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