JotCast | Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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Tim Dierkes

2:24

Oak's a good fit, but if he takes a two-year deal, it means the market has failed him.

Jeffrey Todd Helton

2:25

How much money did Machado's postseason antics cost him?

Steve Adams

2:25

I'd say he has a better chance at signing five than two

Tim Dierkes

2:25

We essentially assigned that about $30MM worth.

DiZlat

2:25

Miller with the Cubs?

Tim Dierkes

2:25

I like it and for quite some time we had the Cubs on one of the $10MM/year relievers. Then I backed off for payroll concerns, thinking they may instead find RPs on the trade market.

Dodgers

2:25

Friedman is very tight fiscally. Why did you pick the Dodger for Harper?

Tim Dierkes

2:26

We considered the "he's never done this before" argument, but the counter is that there's never been a Bryce Harper available. I picked them because they have the money and plenty of room in their OF for him. Plus, something that hasn't happened before can eventually...happen.

Steve Adams

2:27

They have the means + Harper is a unique free agent, basically. Plus not hard for Boras to sell an owner after two straight World Series losses. Whoever signs Harper, I doubt it's going to be the GM/president of baseball ops' call in the end. Those guys aren't signing off on $350MM+

KNOWS PICKIN

2:27

Concerning Harper and Machado, please tell me why you would choose signing one of these guys vs getting 2 or 3 all star caliber players for the same price and with shorter commitments

Steve Adams

2:27

(Or $400MM+ in our estimation)

Tim Dierkes

2:27

They are 26-year-olds with 5 WAR projections for 2019 as well as perhaps the next 4-5 years. There are no other players who fit that.

Giants

2:27

I think Giants make the most sense for Harper. They were all in on Stanton last year. What has changed since then?

Tim Dierkes

2:28

Nothing - the Giants are a reasonable pick for Harper.

From our post: We see the Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees, Giants, and Cardinals as the most likely suitors.

Steve Adams

2:28

Their payroll is already stuffed and they weren't very good. I never bought them as a viable Stanton landing spot despite how hard they tried. If they'd gotten him, they'd have had to find other ways to dip below the tax line and still not been that great.

They make some sense but I like them the least of the teams we listed.

Tim Dierkes

2:28

I know we picked the Dodgers so that has a bit of meaning, but there's really nothing to differentiate any of the listed teams for me.

2:29

I think they have enough room in the payroll dude.

Steve Adams

2:29

Ha I know -- we discussed this a lot :)

Not saying they don't have it, just that it'd be a massive commitment and they'd still have SO many other holes

Donaldson Ducks

2:29

Last year, you (and everyone) were way off on the dollar amounts for FA. How did you take that into consideration for this year's list?

Tim Dierkes

2:31

I mostly started to consider that when it came to the low-end position players, as those were mostly who got crushed relative to expectations (Lynn aside). So we went fairly low on LeMahieu, Moose, Markakis, bumped Asdrubal off the list, stuff like that. I don't think it makes sense to downgrade the top-end guys because of last winter.

Steve Adams

2:31

I think if anything it was most instructive of our willingness to go high AAVs on two-year deals for relievers and our decision to ignore a lot of crappy defensive corner guys. Beyond that, we kind of treated it as an outlier. If it happens for a second straight season, it'll have to be a much larger factor moving forward.

Tim Dierkes

2:31

Some guys will get left out in the cold, but that's always true.

Cards Fan

2:32

What do you see Harper signing for? is 10/350 a possibility? I just don't see him as a 400 mil dollar player, or even a 350 one at that. Are the Cardinals a possibility? If so, what teams are willing to take a majority of Fowler's contract + a good Cardinals prospect? If they are able to move Fowler, do you think Donaldson and Harper are in play for them? I know it's not typically what they do, but this offseason seems different. Thanks in advance.

Steve Adams

2:32

Again -- we published our predictions on Harper (and 49 other players) here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019...

We do see him as a $400MM+ player.

Tim Dierkes

2:32

We feel that many of his suitors would rather pay the extra $50-70MM, go beyond ten years, and lower the luxury tax hit. We came to realize we are mostly alone on that, but so be it.

Harper

2:33

Why is my value so high? I am basically Khris Davis and have had 2 elite seasons in my career

Tim Dierkes

2:33

Who is better?

Bryce Harper (65.5% | 329 votes)

Khris Davis (17.7% | 89 votes)

Chris Davis (16.7% | 84 votes)

Total Votes: 502

Evan

2:33

Is big game James looking at a minor league contract?

Tim Dierkes

2:33

He was one of few FAs to hit 200 innings. I think he's got a Major League deal.

Andrew

2:33

The Reds could be a player for Kikuchi? Who wouldn't be really?

Steve Adams

2:34

Harper is demonstrably better than Khris Davis and also a half decade younger, I don't think there's even a comparison between the two.

Tim Dierkes

2:34

Absolutely. I guess it's not where I expect a Japanese player to choose to go, but they could outbid everyone as they did Aroldis Chapman.

Steve Adams

2:34

Williams and Castellini are going to push hard for Kikuchi I'd bet, but it's going to be tough to convince a Japanese superstar to go to a Midwest city.

AA in the ATL

2:35

Is Allen really the BEST I could do in upgrading my pen in 2019? I don't mind the Brantley prediction, but certainly we can do better than Cody Allen. A guy whose walks increased last year should NOT be a target for the Braves.

Tim Dierkes

2:35

Not at all. The Braves have the money to sign any reliever on the market. I expect AA and Liberty Media to show restraint though.

Steve Adams

2:35

Of course he's not the best. Take any player who's signing at a comparable rate and put him there. We're basically saying that's the level at which we think they'll spend.

Could be a bit higher, certainly.

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