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Top 50 MLB Free Agents Chat
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Tim Dierkes
2:05
I'd take another look at the list, we listed the Angels on all sorts of big free agents.  They're going to spend some money.  I wouldn't think closer would be top priority given the rotation needs, but bringing Iglesias back is plausible.
Steve Adams
2:06
Yeah, I just assume they'd prefer to spend their money in the rotation. If they're going to sign a $56MM pitcher (which I predicted them to do!), I think it'd be someone who could throw 180+ innings.
Clayton Kershaw
2:06
If I'm retiring, I'd say so by now-- right?
Tim Dierkes
2:07
It'd be young to retire, but I don't know what Kershaw is thinking.  It's plausible that he'd wait out the probable lockout and also see how his elbow is feeling in the spring before deciding anything.
Pumpsie Green
2:09
There seems to be too many good shortstops looking for mansions, and too few landing spots. It really seems like a stretch to include the Red Sox in this discussion. After the Yankees and Phillies, we're left with teams like the Tigers and Rangers, who haven't been spending at those levels recently. What leads you to believe wallets will be opened?
Tim Dierkes
2:10
Fair to say the Red Sox are a stretch, but I also think it's reasonable to expect the Tigers, Rangers, Cardinals, Mariners, Astros, and Mets to be involved on these guys to some degree.  Not spending at that level recently doesn't mean they won'
won't start
Steve Adams
2:10
The Tigers' ownership and Rangers' front office have both said they're going to spend this winter. There are also other teams needing shortstops. Astros will likely lose Correa. Twins could plausibly play for one of the lower ones. If Baez goes back to the Mets, that's a shortstop off the board to a team that didn't acutely need a shortstop. Mariners will be involved. Cardinals perhaps. Jays will try to keep Semien.
Colin
2:11
Which non tender candidates are most likely to join your top FA list?
Tim Dierkes
2:12
Adam Duvall?  I don't think Cody Bellinger will be non-tendered.  Could see him or Renfroe being traded.  Gary Sanchez maybe.
Steve Adams
2:13
We don't add to the Top 50 list once it's published, and generally speaking, most non-tenders don't have the earning power to crack the list -- especially not when there's such a deep class this year. Voit, Gary Sanchez... there'll be some interesting names cut loose.
Ronnie
2:13
Surprised that we didn’t see a JV to Detroit prediction! Any chance that happens?
Tim Dierkes
2:13
Reasonable enough for me, but I'd think JV would go to more of an established contender.
Rhett
2:13
Can you say "plausible" one more time in this chat, please
Steve Adams
2:13
Justin Verlander is 39 and will want to pitch for a slam-dunk playoff contender.
Tim Dierkes
2:13
I just busted out a "reasonable" dude!
Dean
2:14
Which free agent seems most impacted by having a QO attached? Guys in that mid-tier-- Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto, for example-- seem to get hurt a lot more on the open market due to the QO pick consideration.
Steve Adams
2:14
I'll say feasible from now on
Tim Dierkes
2:15
Castellanos, E-Rod, Taylor, Iglesias, Conforto, Verlander, Syndergaard, Belt - I think they're all harmed by the QO.
A guy like Anthony DeSclafani or Carlos Rodon has to have been thrilled to not get tagged.
Steve Adams
2:15
Yeah, it's not great for anyone unless you're just such a high-profile name you're largely exempt from the detriment (e.g. Correa, Seager)
Matz, too
(Thrilled, that is)
Sonny42
2:15
Lots of talk and post and comments about gives moving positions just to fit on a team but I don’t see guys like Xander willing to move positions they don’t pay top dollar for non premium positions
Tim Dierkes
2:16
I don't think the Red Sox are going to sign Correa, Seager, or Story, if that's what you're saying.
Matt W
2:16
Do you guys do any fun sidebets with these predictions?  Like the 2nd and 3rd place predictors have to buy the winner dinner?
Steve Adams
2:16
Someday I will get my Travis d'Arnaud Dodgers shirsey from Tim
Tim Dierkes
2:16
Let's see.  I know I owe Anthony an E-Rod shirsey if he gets $70 mil or more.  What else was there?
Steve Adams
2:16
I already have a James McCann Mets shirsey
2:17
Jon Gray is gonna bolster my t-shirt collection this winter
Get that money, Jon.
Tim Dierkes
2:17
I'm just gonna let the world know that I found Steve's #72 d'Arnaud Dodgers shirsey that I lost when I moved, and my wife added an apostrophe to it with fabric paint.  It's ready to ship
Steve Adams
2:17
I think I still retroactively deserve something for my Jason Castro three-year, $25MM call
WHOA!!!!!!!!!
Todd
2:18
How are Aaron Loup and Collin McHugh not ranked but Hector Neris is??? Is age that much of a factor? Because McHugh and Loup were two of the best relievers in all of baseball last year whereas Neris was just ok.
Steve Adams
2:18
I need to order another frame for my office. d'Arnaud and McCann is a pretty good catching tandem to have on the wall
Tim Dierkes
2:18
I'll let Steve start this one, he wanted McHugh on the list.
Steve Adams
2:19
I also stumped for Neris, so it's a double-whammy!
2:20
So, on Neris, here's something I sent when pushing for him to be included (and at a higher price point than Tim initially wanted):

All numbers over past 4 seasons unless otherwise indicated

  • 32 years old -- 33 next June
  • 3.14 SIERA, with single-season marks of 2.28, 3.23, 4.26 and 3.27.
  • 32.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 23 K-BB%
  • Average fastball of 94.4 mph -- including 94.3 mph in his walk year
  • 17.6% SwStr and 35.6% Chase rate. That SwStr ranks third among ALL Major League pitchers, SP and RP alike, since 2018 -- min. 200 IP.
  • 88.4 mph average exit velo -- including a ridiculous 86.5 mph average in his walk year 
  • 2021-only percentile rankings: Avg EV (90th), xwOBA (92nd), xSLG (93rd), xERA (92nd), Barrel% (82nd), Whiff% (93rd), HardHit% (73rd), xBA (95th), K% (91st), Chase% (93rd)
Basically, everything under the hood paints Neris as a better reliever than his Phillies' ERAs would indicate
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