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Top 50 MLB Free Agents Chat
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Tim Dierkes
9:33
It's a reminder that the Padres remain willing to do crazy contracts to keep their own guys?
Anthony Franco
9:33
I just think it says they really love Robert Suarez, yeah
Steve Adams
9:33
Nick Martinez, YOU have secured yourself $40MM
(Kidding. Maybe.)
Tim Dierkes
9:33
We were the high people (baseball writer wise) on Suarez with 3/30, and he goes and gets 5/45.
Steve Adams
9:33
Preller's love for keeping his guys DOES bode well for Profar
If there's a path to him getting a three- or four-year deal that makes my brain melt, it's re-signing with San Diego
Tim Dierkes
9:34
The Padres seem kind of tapped out financially, so it was hard to project them on top FA.  Obviously Preller tries to have his hands in everything and often pulls things off.  Could be more trade-centric this winter.
Anthony Franco
9:34
I do think SD will be in the mid-tier SP market. Couldn't pick them on another top FA with the payroll where it is right now
Steve Adams
9:35
I don't think they're "tapped out," but I found it hard to predict them to sign a nine-figure deal.
Tim Dierkes
9:35
I wonder if giving Suarez big bucks means he'd like to move Hader.  Probably not, but worth considering.
Steve Adams
9:35
Think it just means they love Suarez
With good reason!
Suarez is a monster
Anthony Franco
9:35
Preller and Melvin are the only people who love Suarez more than Steve
OZ
9:35
MLBTradeRumors conducts this prediction contest every year but I’ve never seen a resolution to the contest.  Who won the contest last year, for example?
Tim Dierkes
9:36
Scott Schum received a $500 check for his efforts here
This despite predicting Kikuchi to go back overseas!
BorasorBoris
9:37
Correa to the dodgers is just joke and will never happen. Please calm my soul
Tim Dierkes
9:37
I think the concerns about how the fanbase would react to Correa are real and acknowledged by the front office.  I also think he remains in play for them if they otherwise like where the contract ends up.
9:38
In short: you'll all get over it if he's good.  You'll absolutely kill him if he struggles.  Dunno if I'd want to walk into that situation but I'm not sure what makes Carlos tick.
Steve Adams
9:38
I don't think he'll go there unless he can't find the 10ish-year deal he probably wants and instead gets serious about a more aggressive version of the short-term mercenary deal he took in MN this year -- something like well over $40MM AAV with opt-outs.

But, yeah, there's just so much risk in that blowing up in Friedman's face
There's also the obvious and fair question fans could ask: "How could you let Turner walk for comparable money"?
9:39
Hard to answer if a Correa deal goes awry.
Tim Dierkes
9:39
Sometimes though a front office needs to shoot its shot and let the implication be: We like Correa more than Trea.
The Cubs signing Yu Darvish comes to mind.  They had to let Arrieta walk, and it was them saying they preferred Yu.
Sleepless Mariner
9:40
I noticed the M's weren't a very popular pick amongst all y'all in the top 50 predictions.  Any thoughts as to why?
Tim Dierkes
9:40
For me, the rotation has a surplus, and the bullpen is similar.  I can see them signing a SS but it was easier to put those 4 on other teams.  That mostly just leaves corner outfielders for them.  I think they're in play for any of the FA corner OF, but that class is thin after Judge.
Anthony Franco
9:41
Yeah they were really tough for me. I do actually expect them to be more aggressive than I projected (JDM/Chafin) but it was hard to peg them on specific top targets because the roster doesn't have many glaring needs
Steve Adams
9:42
They're a feasible landing spot for a shortstop, but I generally see them more active in trades. I didn't want to put a big SP there when they already have six, will probably trade at least one (Marco/Flexen), and have Brash plus several other prospects not far off.

I kept Haniger there and gave them a 2B (Segura reunion SZN), which felt reasonable enough.
Also worth noting they're basically already over their 2022 payroll mark
GodfatherSJP
9:42
Phillies have a lot of payroll coming off the books for 2023. Assuming they have 65-70 million to play with (from NBC Sports reporting by Jim Salisbury), what/whom do you see them spending this money on?
Steve Adams
9:42
They're still a good ways from their franchise record, so they have plenty of room to add though
Tim Dierkes
9:42
A lot of us like them for Trea.  Rotation and bullpen are fair game too.  There's not much I'd rule them out on aside from Judge.
Steve Adams
9:43
I like the Phillies to sign one of the shortstops or make a Rodon/Verlander-sized splash in free agency. They'll sign some relievers, too.
I find a shortstop likelier than a big-name SP. I had Eovaldi going there pre-QO, so they could sign someone from the middle tiers even if they do get a SS.
Anthony Franco
9:43
Yeah I'm the opposite. I like them more on a shorter-term, high-AAV type (hence the Verlander pick) and bullpen help than one of the top shortstops
DeGrom Texas Ranger
9:44
Do executives use your predictions exactly? It seems that some last year were bloated (Jon Gray) and still got filled up exactly.
Tim Dierkes
9:44
Like, a team saying "MLBTR predicted this so that's what we're offering?"  No, pretty sure that is not happening!
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