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Anthony Franco
9:44
Lol I don't think we made Jon Gray his money, no
9:45
Steve correctly pointed out that Gray's good and would be desirable, and the Rangers agreed
Tim Dierkes
9:45
I would think perhaps when an exec is trying to get a picture of the market, our predictions can help as a guess to consider before they get talking to the agents?
Steve Adams
9:45
I don't think anyone is looking at our predictions and saying "Oh, well I guess we need to get to $XYZ to sign this guy," but if Jon Daniels and Chris Young will confirm on record that Jon Gray got paid because of MLBTR, then as the driver of the "JON GRAY IS GONNA GET PAID" bus last year, I demand a partial commission from his agents.
Tim Dierkes
9:45
We're higher than our peers on certain players, so teams might see that and consider it an informed opinion of where the market could go.
9:46
Thing is, they get to actually negotiate with the agents, so they'd have minimal use for our list.
John
9:46
Were Carlos Rodon or even Chris Bassitt considered in your Orioles predictions? Or do believe Walker and Taillon are as much as they spend
Steve Adams
9:46
I think it's more that there are often times (Gray, E-Rod) where we find it easy to identify a guy who'll be paid well despite lacking a flashy ERA or something, and we try to highlight those. Gray was going to get his money regardless, and we picked up on some of that.
Doesn't always work out -- we've been high more than we'd like to admit, and we've also just completely undershot our share of FAs
Tim Dierkes
9:46
Bassitt I probably leaned away from there do to the QO.  Rodon would be fun and while I find it unlikely, there's not a specific reason they couldn't.
Steve Adams
9:47
I don't love the Orioles punting picks to sign guys, but they have the money to more or less do whatever they want. Their projected payroll is like $40MM haha
Anthony Franco
9:47
Rodón feels higher than I expect them to go. Gave real consideration on Bassitt but between age and the qualifying offer I flipped to Manaea
Yankee fan
9:48
No left field FA linked to the yankees?  Seems like benintendi or conforto would be likely?
Tim Dierkes
9:48
I feel like the Benintendi experience wasn't amazing for them, but I could still see either of those happening.
Steve Adams
9:48
I mentioned in Benintendi's write-up that the Yankees could re-sign him. Again, as I expressly laid out in the intro to the Top 50, not picking a team to sign a player at one position does not mean we think they'll just punt at that position.
9:49
There are so many free agents who didn't make the list but will still provide real value, and the trade market is a vital piece of the offseason. This is not binary.
Anthony Franco
9:49
Yeah sure, I think they'll add someone to play left field. Could come via trade or lower-cost FA again though
Isaac
9:49
Anthony predicted Jacob DeGrom to sign in St. Louis - do any of you guys see them pursuing a big time free agent that breaks their previous external addition on the market? (Fowler, 82.5 million in 2016 is their max I believe.)
Steve Adams
9:50
Anthony's on an island there, haha, but I thought he was nuts for picking Freeman to leave the Braves a year ago, sooooo
Tim Dierkes
9:50
I think we can all still picture Contreras there.  deGrom, Verlander work.  Dansby isn't totally nuts.
Alright well I at least think deGrom/Cards is within the realm of possibility, though I wouldn't predict it
Steve Adams
9:50
(Well, not "nuts," but I basically said "Hell no I am not predicting that" -- and I chickened out under similar circumstances with Judge this year!)
Zaidi
9:51
Odds I come away with one of deGrom, Verlander, Rodon for my co ace this off-season?
Anthony Franco
9:51
Ha yeah I feel similarly towards STL as I do with Philly. Huge near-term spending capacity, could use a true ace atop an otherwise good rotation
But a long-term deal on a shortstop feels out of character for that organization. Think this is a time to go big over a shorter term though
That's regarding St. Louis, to be clear
Tim Dierkes
9:52
I think having enjoyed Rodon on the one-year deal they're not planning to commit another five.  I can see deGrom or Verlander there, although I'm guessing they start with Judge, move to one of the big 4 SS, and then maybe look at those SP.
Talking about the Giants, my answer
Steve Adams
9:52
I don't think they'll go long-term on Rodon. With deGrom and JV, I think they'll want more clearly defined contenders. There's also the whole "deGrom wants to be close to Florida" thing, but at the end of the day, money talks.
I like the Giants more on position players
Anthony Franco
9:52
On the Giants, I can see them on any of the top starters, yeah. I eventually leaned more position player with their top splashes but either feels plausible
Tim Dierkes
9:53
I had the Giants on deGrom for some time but then got scared and changed it.
Steve Adams
9:53
Takeaway: Tim is a coward.
Chet Lemon
9:53
Benintendi would sure look nice in a Tigers uniform. They desperately need guys who get on base.
Tim Dierkes
9:54
They pretty much have to come away with at least one corner OF.  Benny is realistic enough
Going to that park might turn his 5 HR into 3 though...
Anthony Franco
9:54
Feels completely viable, sure. I gave them Profar for the same reason
Steve Adams
9:54
Benny to DET works. I think the team that goes to four on him will be a team that's not expecting to contend right away. I consider Benintendi more of a "safe, high-floor" free agent, which might not be super sexy to contending clubs.
9:55
"goes to four years" that is
Manaea Skeptic
9:55
The guy just hasn't seemed like the same pitcher since his shoulder surgery- 3 straight seasons of mediocrity with not a lot of encouraging peripherals. Why the optimism?
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