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Tim Dierkes
9:55
I'm gonna let Steve take the floor here
9:56
[passes mic to Steve anxiously, Steve tries not to take it]
Steve Adams
9:56
I wrote out many of my thoughts in the write-up on Manaea. I don't agree that he's been particularly mediocre
"Miserable as Manaea’s finish was, teams will be largely focused on the fact that from Opening Day 2018 through this year’s All-Star break, Manaea racked up 524 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball with fielding-independent marks to match (3.91 FIP, 3.93 xFIP). Over that span of 92 starts, the lefty whiffed 22.1% of his opponents with a terrific 5.8% walk rate and a roughly average 43% grounder rate. It’s easy to get caught up in a poor finish to the season, but over a span of nearly 100 big league starts, Manaea was a solid No. 3 starter averaging better than 5 2/3 frames per outing."
9:57
If you want to cut out 2018 and look only post-surgery, fine
Tim Dierkes
9:57
Bottom line, he's a solid innings-eater type with a fair chance for a sub-4 ERA.  I know he didn't do that in SD.  It's possible this results in a three-year deal.  And I guess some people think he could do one year, but I dunno about that
Anthony Franco
9:57
Yeah I think it's basically that the K/BB numbers are pretty good. He's typically a solid mid-rotation starter, misses more bats than most guys in the middle tier of the rotation market
Steve Adams
9:57
The velo doesn't change much, the K% goes up
Brandon
9:58
Are these predictions all independent of each other?
Steve Adams
9:58
He's played in big parks, and I'm aware the trade market didn't seem to love him last offseason. I still think he's been a generally durable 3/4 starter outside of what was primarily 2-3 terrible second-half starts in '22
Tim Dierkes
9:58
We all came to mostly a consensus on the contract predictions.  We each did our team set of team predictions and those are not related to each other.
Ken
9:58
Do you think there will be any hesitation to sign Aaron Judge, given they'd be paying for his age 31 and beyond seasons, his injury history (missed significant time in 3 of the last 6 years), and a body (6'8" and 290 lbs) where there's no real track record on how he'll age? Given that he's looking for a $300M+ commitment, it seems like there are a lot of warning signs there.
Steve Adams
9:59
From the intro of the post:

"I took the lead on this year’s Top 50, though I did with with extensive input, exhaustive conversation and spirited debates from MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald. For the second straight season, we’ll each be making individual team picks rather than going with one, universal “MLBTR staff pick” for each player’s ultimate landing spot. Contract predictions were still agreed upon collaboratively, although there are certainly players where the MLBTR team was not in consensus as to what prediction to put forth."
I think there's tons of warning signs and red flags, which is true of the top free agent almost every year.
Tim Dierkes
9:59
Well, yes.  The Yankees initially only wanted to go through age 37.  Now we think after the historic season someone will take him through age 38, an eight-year deal.  Some writers think he even gets 9, possibly at a lower AAV.
Steve Adams
9:59
They still get paid
Anthony Franco
10:00
Yeah I think we baked in the warning signs mentioned by capping him at eight years
Tim Dierkes
10:00
I think when we discussed how Judge's next three or so years will go, I was a lower man on it.  Right Anthony?
Side note, I'm gonna duck out of here in a few minutes.
Anthony Franco
10:00
Yeah I like Judge's near-term projection more than Tim does, I think in large part because Tim's concerned about his durability
Steve Adams
10:00
I'll probably keep it going a bit longer
Anthony Franco
10:01
But he's coming off maybe the best offensive season by an impending FA we've seen. He'll get paid
Steve Adams
10:01
Yeah I'm more on Anthony's side there and am more bullish on his next few seasons
Farhan Zaidi
10:01
How much pressure am I under this off-season? Ownership hears the fans and are ready to spend money.The fans expect Judge,
Tim Dierkes
10:01
Yeah so if nothing else, the Giants are here to push the Judge contract up.  Farhan's comments about them being able to sign any player financially, not too common from a GM.
Anthony Franco
10:02
It's not like it's Judge or bust, but yeah, the Giants have to be very aggressive
Tim Dierkes
10:02
I figure there has to be at least a couple other teams that will make serious offers.  It's not a two-team race.  This is an ownership-level thing
Steve Adams
10:02
Zaidi can't control that the fans "expect" Judge. There's pressure to make some moves and get younger/better, in large part because the farm hasn't progressed and turned out regulars as hoped. But the idea that not signing Judge is some kind of failure, to me, is silly.
Anthony Franco
10:02
This is the offseason Farhan's been waiting for though
Steve Adams
10:02
Fair to say
MLB Rumor
10:02
Why do people keep saying Kershaw is an injury risk and ignore that for Rodon/DeGrom/Verlander, each with their own injury history?
Tim Dierkes
10:03
I think you need to listen to better people then?  Read our list, tons of injury stuff for all those guys written.
Steve Adams
10:03
I don't think we ignored that at all. We mentioned their injuries in each player write-up.
Thatsocalguy
10:03
Is Joc Pederson pretty much a given to take the QO? What other candidates are considered givens as well? Thanks!
Steve Adams
10:03
Tyler Anderson
Martin Perez
We predicted three guys to accept the QO. It's on the list!
Anthony Franco
10:03
"Given" feels strong for the latter two
Tim Dierkes
10:03
I really can't see a scenario where Joc turns that down.  Think there's some chance Eovadi accepts but lean against.
Anthony Franco
10:04
But yeah, the guys we thought would accept are the ones we projected to accept
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