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Top 50 MLB Free Agents Chat
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Steve Adams
10:15
But generally, MLB free agency plays out over months and signings come in at a steady trickle ... it's not like NFL, NBA free agency.
On the Rangers, I don't see any way Joc turns down his QO
I think Perez will also accept
10:16
As for deGrom -- I picked him for the Rangers and we have his expected contract on our list!
MarinersBaseball
10:16
Think the Mariners could be players for a starter?
Steve Adams
10:18
Touched on this earlier, but it just seems unlikely. They already have Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, Kirby, Gonzales and Flexen. One of those last two (possibly both?) will be traded, but even in that scenario, there's still Matt Brash, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and others bubbling up through the farm.
10:19
Sure it's plausible they sign someone and trade from the SP depth they have (not necessarily in that order), but there are more straightforward ways to fill out the roster.
Tiger Faithful
10:19
Please boy's! Tell me the Tigers will add some offence to this team?? Chad Pinder as a 4th outfielder and Josh Bell would make a great addition.
Steve Adams
10:22
If you can get excited by Chad Pinder, then more power to you. Anyone with that level of pining for niche role players is my kind of fan. Bell makes sense there on paper. Doubt they'd sign him at the price we picked, but I don't really know WHO is going to sign Bell at that price. We basically just felt that even as we tried to underpay him and listed the reasons we were reluctant, we've had the exact same concerns about this same skill set in the past (Moustakas, Hosmer, Castellanos to a lesser extent) -- and Scott Boras has gotten all of those guys paid.

And, for all Bell's warts, he's a pretty good bet for 20ish homers and offense that's around 20% better than average, even if the road to get there is about as up-and-down as it gets.
Mark
10:22
Do you think the A’s trade A.J Puk or laureano?
Steve Adams
10:22
The A's trading anyone who is into or approaching arbitration will not surprise me. In Laureano's case, I feel they'd be selling low so think it's likelier they hold and hope for a good first half to boost demand, though.
LincolnT
10:23
Ever thought of doing a summary of each team and which FA each writer predicts they'll get?
Steve Adams
10:26
We haven't -- largely because I think (understandably so) our readers place way more emphasis on the team aspect of the predictions than we do. We think them through, vet them to the best of our ability and don't want to just casually drop things for the sake of reaction. But as each write-up of a player indicates, there's anywhere from five to 15 teams that make sense for these guys. Me choosing Dansby to the Cubs doesn't mean I don't think the Braves could re-sign him or the Twins could sign him, or whatever.

Highlighting the team-specific aspect of our predictions that way places more emphasis on them than is needed. We spend the bulk of the time trying to determine the years and dollars on each player, as that's far more predictable than nailing an offseason's worth of free-agent landing spots, where nearly every move carries a butterfly effect that impacts everything else thereafter.
Steve P
10:26
Pirates aren't signing Benintendi, despite connections to the GM.  Benny gets at least 3/$45, and the Bucs will not match or exceed that.  Besides, from the player's perspective... I'd avoid the organization like the plague.
Steve Adams
10:28
I didn't pick Benintendi to the Pirates solely because of Cherington, and I think you could be very right that his price point is too rich for them.

I generally think Benintendi is a high-floor guy that clear contenders won't be thrilled about as an everyday LF. When you're shooting to build a World Series winner, I don't think you're jazzed about spending $13MMish and saying "Cool! There's a solid 2-WAR LF"

A team coming out of a rebuild and looking to solidify its roster, however, might feel differently. And a lower-payroll club, in particular, might see Benintendi as someone who's a good bet not to give them a goose-egg ROI with an outside chance of delivering a bargain 4-5 WAR performance.
That type of performance is typically off limits in free agency to small-payroll clubs.
10:30
I weighed a lot of lower-payroll, not-clear-contenders on Benintendi, and at one point strongly considered putting him back in K.C. I like the Pirates to do something a little out of character as their farm starts to percolate in the Majors, though, and they have clear OF needs, plenty of payroll capacity, and the obvious familiarity with Cherington was the icing on the cake.
In short, I agree it might not be LIKELY, but it's one of those semi-bold predictions that feels semi-plausible -- to the point where I felt OK predicting it.
Grayson
10:31
I noticed Steve and Tim had a lot of the same picks. Who was looking off who’s paper?
Steve Adams
10:32
Ha, we all talk about who's going where. Tim kept getting mildly annoyed because he'd ask where I had player X going and why, and then saying "Crap, now I like that better than my pick."

That didn't happen a ton, but definitely a few times. There are certainly times where I moved someone based on a decent logic from one of the other guys, though.

And generally speaking, there's a bit of hivemind among the staff for some of this sort of stuff. It's unavoidable given how often we stare at all this, how often we discuss among ourselves, etc.
Harry Doyle
10:33
Is Chris Martin and Josh Bell realistic for Tampa Bay
Steve Adams
10:33
Martin feels pretty Rays-ish, minus the asking price perhaps. I don't think they'll spend at wherever Bell lands, personally. I know they made a real offer to Freeman last year, but Josh Bell ain't Freddie Freeman.
10:34
I'd imagine the Rays feel confident in their ability to approximate Bell's production with some series of weird waiver claims and minor trades, and they'll probably somehow be right because they're voodoo wizards and I will hear no argument to the contrary.
Guest
10:34
Drew Rucinski???? As a top 50 pick? Come on!!!! You've gotta be kidding me.
Steve Adams
10:34
The #50 spot on our list is always kind of a Wild Card guy who we feel will get a decent contract that most people haven't heard of or haven't thought about
10:35
I think Rucinski will get a big league deal and be in someone's rotation next year. Will it be for $9MM total? Might be less, but anything up to $10MM wouldn't surprise me.
Drew-Roo's had a really good run in the KBO, and we increasingly see guys get paid coming back from NPB and the KBO
If I'd put Nick Martinez at #50 a year ago, you'd probably have had the same reaction. Chris Flexen before him. Merrill Kelly before him. Miles Mikolas before him. Colby Lewis before him. Etc. etc. etc.
Timothy
10:36
How much longer do you think Justin Verlander can pitch effectively? Do you think he has only two years left or more?
Steve Adams
10:36
He's said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s, and given the comeback season he just had after a two-year layoff in his late 30s, I'm not betting against that mutant.
10:37
Dude can probably pitch until he's 50 if he wants. Just a freak (in the best and nicest way possible)
Joshua
10:37
Does a reunion in DC make sense for Josh Bell? Seems he was a good fit there.
Steve Adams
10:38
Honestly yeah< I can see something like this. They can sign Bell and still get Meneses regular ABs this year (not that I think Meneses is necessarily going to keep up his awesome 2022 breakout -- awesome as that would be).

I don't think the Nationals are going to be huge spenders, but if they loved Bell and want some veteran continuity, and he's open to going back there knowing they're in a rebuild, then sure, it passes the sniff test for me.
harmony
10:39
Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, who were born the same month, have played their entire MLB careers with the New York Mets, including six seasons as teammates in the Queens. Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR in 608 games while Conforto has posted 19.3 fWAR in 757 games. Despite health issues, would a short-term contract for Conforto be a better bargain than the projected long-term, nine-figure contract for Nimmo?
Steve Adams
10:40
I mean, any short-term free agent deal is going to have better bargain potential than Nimmo. No one is signing Nimmo for five or six years and thinking "Oh this is a steal." That's generally true of all top-end free agents.

But signing Conforto means you're pushing Marte to center, and there's plenty of downside there. I don't think the Mets love the idea of Marte playing center field, but given the market scarcity, they'd do it as Plan B, Plan C, Plan D, etc.
Mitch
10:41
Strategy question: lets say you have 3 relievers that you value roughly the same and you know that the Yanks are signing several bullpen arms this offseason: would you pick the 2 you think are mostly for them and try to make the 3rd fit somewhere else like a puzzle or pick all 3 for them and figure "a .660 batting average gets me in the money"?
Steve Adams
10:44
The reliever picks are often such dart throws. You can see some trends/traits that teams like in their relievers, but it's so rarely predictable.

One year we just made every pick in a vacuum, independent of each other. This was when we still just had one "MLBTR staff pick" for all 50 guys, and not individual, per-writer picks. It happened to be a winter where the Cubs were going to spend a ton, and we thought they'd be the likeliest team to sign quite a few players.

We laid out in the intro this approach. We're looking at each in isolation, independent of each other. We realize if a team signs Corner OF A, it might take them out of the market for Corner OF B, but since we know they're GOING to spend on a corner OF, they can still be the "likeliest" landing spot for both.
Naturally, everyone skipped past the entire intro, read none of it, and yelled "LOL TIM IS A HOMER AND THINKS THE CUBS ARE GONNA SIGN 17 GUYS"
10:45
...We did not go back to that approach, haha. And it's part of the reason we now have individual picks from all the contributing writers.
Tanner
10:45
Is Gonzo, Brash, and DeLoach enough for Soto and Baez? Detroit could pivot back to Correa.
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