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Steve Adams
10:45
Holy cow if you are taking on that Baez deal you are absolutely not giving up Matt Brash
10:46
Broadly, I always thought the Correa/Tigers link was overblown. It was based so much on AJ Hinch.
10:47
Obviously Detroit made an offer, but 10/275 never felt serious to me; Correa was always going to be looking for 300+ -- likely well over 300 (i.e. more than Harper's free-agent record $330MM)
Marlins
10:47
Why arent the Marlins getting any love? Just two people predict the Marlins to get anyone and its from the bottom of the list
Steve Adams
10:48
Because they tied up a bunch of money in bad contracts for Avi Garcia and Jorge Soler a year ago, are now stuck with them, and will probably operate more on the trade market.
10:49
I could see them signing a first baseman, but they typically haven't spent heavily on relievers, they're not going to spend $10MM+ on a starter given the depth they have in house, the outfield/DH mix is sort of jammed up by Garcia/Soler ... I don't love them as a candidate to spend a lot in free agency.
Jerry
10:49
More and observation -- interesting sub-storyline this offseason -- Clev, Taillon, and Eovaldi are all two-time TJ recipients. Fascinated to see how they're valued on the open market. How they perform on their next deals could influence how similar pitchers are valued in the future! Fun stuff :D
Steve Adams
10:51
Eovaldi already got a 4-year deal after his second TJ, too. But yes, I think it'll be fascinating to see how far teams will go. Taillon is the real litmus test. At Eovaldi's age and with a QO, he's not going to get another four years. Even three is something of a reach, especially with this year's shoulder/back injuries and velo drop.

Clevinger just wasn't very good or exciting and is 32 already. Taillon's the guy who is young enough and good enough to be another four-year recipient despite being a TJx2 guy.

I agree, it's a fascinating sub-plot to watch and one that will create some new data points for future free agent seasons.
John
10:52
As a White Sox fan, I formally chide you for trying to give me hope that the Sox will sign anyone in the top 50 FA class.
Steve Adams
10:52
I have been chided. It is noted.
DC
10:52
Who will be this years Texas Rangers?  (A team out of left field that spends big on multiple free agents to accelerate contention)
Steve Adams
10:54
I don't think the Rangers were out of left field. They said before the 2021 season -- on record (Daniels and/or Young) -- that they were going to be "very aggressive" in free agency. We knew the payroll capacity was huge with a new ballpark and previous payrolls in the $160-170MM range. I didn't think they'd sign TWO of the top five shortstops, but that's because I didn't think any team would sign two of them. They seemed a totally viable landing spot for one of the five, though.

This year's closest parallel might be the Giants, I guess? I think the D-backs could spend more than people anticipate, but they're not going on a Rangers-esque spree.
Orioles, too.
Twombly
10:54
What is the point of a mutual option? Makes no sense to include one in my opinion.
Steve Adams
10:54
They are almost always just accounting measures.
10:55
It's extraordinarily rare for both parties to accept their side of a mutual option. Like it happens once every 3-5 years type of rare.
10:56
But adding the mutual option is a nice means of kicking some guaranteed money a couple years down the road; we saw several this year with arbitration guys, which I think was basically just teams tacking them on to avoid a hearing and still being able to technically say they didn't break their "file-and-trial" mentality (which is, once arb figures are exchanged, no more negotiation on one-year deals)
The mutual options technically became multi-year contracts they could point to and say "See! We don't talk one-year deals after figures are exchanged." Mmhmm.
I’ll play 2B
10:57
Trea Turner would be a good fit for Seattle but nobody pick him for Seattle, why?
Steve Adams
10:58
"Turner will reject the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, but that should have minimal impact his market. A few big-market clubs are expected to sit out the shortstop market (e.g. Yankees), but any of the Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, Twins, Braves, Cardinals, Mariners, Cubs, Angels or Orioles could be in the mix for one of this year’s big four shortstops, and the Padres almost always at least kick the tires on every big name available."
We all agree Turner makes sense on the Mariners. But he makes sense on like 8-10 teams.
10:59
No one settled on the Mariners as their final pick. That's not the same as saying he can't and won't sign there.
Ben
10:59
I think Xander makes a word of sense for the Mets at 3B. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
10:59
He does, but I bet he'll have offers to play shortstop too and would probably prefer to stay there.
Chris
11:00
Why do you guys have the Braves doing so little? And who’s their SS next season?
Steve Adams
11:00
Have gotten lots of these. Scroll up. Or look in the comments section of the Top 50 post.
MarinersBaseball
11:01
So you're projecting the team with the 6th top TV deal in the country that starting packing their stadium to being cheap this off-season? Not in on any of the top dogs this free agency and needing to chase down the best team in baseball?
Steve Adams
11:02
If only Jerry Dipoto had another means of adding to his roster than free agency! Like, if he could take some players he currently has, and send them to another team in exchange for some of THAT TEAM'S players. Almost an exchange of goods.

I feel Jerry would be into that.
Twombly
11:02
What kind of deal will Kimbrel command? Any chance he reunites with the Braves?
Steve Adams
11:03
I think a year in the $7-10MM range with incentives. Braves have had opportunities to get him in the past and haven't. Sure it's possible, but I'd take the field over Atlanta
Chris
11:03
Why are the Cubs in the SS market after the year Nico Hoerner had?
Steve Adams
11:04
They've already talked to Hoerner about playing another position (presumably 2B). He's been receptive. Easier to sell your in-house guy on changing positions than selling a free agent.
Anton
11:04
Given the Rays were willing the shell out for Freeman last offseason, could they be a darkhorse for one of the pricier guys on the market? Wouldn't peg 'em for the A+ list of guys, but maybe a Josh Bell, or W. Contreas perhaps?
Steve Adams
11:05
Contreras seems likelier. Freeman was an elite player at his position, and that applies to Contreras, too. Bell's "just" a solid 1B/DH. I don't think they'd do it there.
MRS
11:05
Why are the Angels not getting any love? They need pitching and SS, what’s their plan?
Steve Adams
11:06
Largely because they're selling the team, and partly because we (or at least I) think the need for pitching is overstated, for reasons I explored here a couple months ago:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/angels-pitchers-breakouts-reid-...
Moneygrip
11:06
Why doesn't anyone (especially small market team) embrace OBP and small ball to compete with the 3 true outcomes teams?
Steve Adams
11:07
The Guardians just romped to a division win and put up a legitimate fight in the ALDS by building a team of dudes who just don't strike out.
John
11:07
Do you see the Tigers being aggressive this off-season with signing a player like Wilson Contreras?
Steve Adams
11:07
Not really. I don't think they hired Scott Harris just to have a different guy come in and spend a bunch of money.
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