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Top 50 MLB Free Agents Chat
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Orioles Man
1:53
The Orioles will surprise, they will sign a Top 50 free agent, but which one do you think has the best chance of being signed by the O's?
Tim Dierkes
1:53
I liked them for Ha-Seong Kim, but Steve Adams talked me out of it.  Blame him for that one
Djc
1:53
You don’t think the Angels would go to the extreme to pick up Bauer?
Tim Dierkes
1:54
Sure, I could see it.  Does Bauer want to work with Mickey Callaway again?  Will they replace him?  Would he consider them a perennial contender?  Those are the tough questions.
Mazzy Star
1:54
Do you really think the Mariners, with a payroll barely above $60MM, featuring one of the youngest rosters in the MLB, are just going to sign an ok but not great 38 year old SP and an ok but not great 34 year old RP? I get that they are never exactly major players on the top end of the FA market but with a buyers market and their rebuild looking like it's on a faster track than most predicted (plus internal reinforcements like Kelenic and Gilbert en route), I was a bit surprised to not see more top half of the 50 pegged for the M's. I think this could be the first year we see Dipoto actually try to augment his team with more first rate guys, especially if the majority of other teams cheap out.
Tim Dierkes
1:55
There's nothing stopping the Mariners from being active in free agency.  Their infield looks mostly set, maybe one spot in the rotation, bullpen needs a lot.  If you want to say they'll sign 3-4 of the best relievers and one of the better non-Bauer SPs, that wouldn't be a shocking outcome.
Ryan
1:56
Does Trevor Bauer have a beef with Mickey Callaway that I'm not aware of? Otherwise I feel like he's an obvious fit with the Angels, more so than any other team.
Tim Dierkes
1:56
This by no means rules out the match, but worth considering: The Indians tried to change him too, if more modestly. A few years ago, Bauer says, Mickey Callaway—then the Tribe’s pitching coach, now the Mets’ manager—berated him during batting practice for nearly an hour for refusing to throw more fastballs. Callaway had a point: Bauer’s career ERA was around 4.50. Bauer had a point too. “My process has been the same the entire time,” he says. “I’m going to try to find every single way to do better, and I’ve probably researched it more than you have. Don’t tell me what I do and don’t know without some good f---ing data behind it.”
1:57
But to hear Bauer talk about what HE wants, it's a team big on data/pitch science that wins every year.  Angels ain't that.  Maybe they could convince him they'll become that, but I preferred to pick a team that already has those features.
He also wants to pitch every fourth day, and I do think that idea matches well with the Angels.
Mrs. Teasdale
1:57
How do you determine the rankings for your free agent list?
Tim Dierkes
1:58
Roughly speaking, earning power.  So you might see something wonky where Semien has a $14MM contract projection but outranks a player projected to make $18MM.  The reason would be that if Semien wants to, he could probably get at least $24MM on a multiyear deal.
Mr Redlegs
1:58
So you see the Reds going after a decent SS?
Tim Dierkes
1:59
We debated that a lot.  I didn't love Didi there because despite being interested last winter, they weren't the top bidder when he went for 1/14.  Plus, Jose Garcia is still a thing that they might not want to block.  But, it was tough placing the FA shortstops for me.
Mitch
1:59
Between Knizner and their overall pitching depth wouldn't the Cards be better off letting Waino and Yadi walk while trying to resign Kolten and say Joc Pederson or another bat?
Tim Dierkes
2:00
Quite possibly, yes.  I wasn't bold enough to make that the prediction on our list though.
Jonny
2:00
Do you think the Giants could be in on the 25 year old Korean SS? Crawford off the books in a year, Luciano seemingly gonna have to move to 3B or Corner OF.
Tim Dierkes
2:00
Yes, I think Kim makes lots of sense for the Giants.
Guest
2:00
Are Jake Odorizzi and James Paxton viable #3 starters and have they recovered from their injuries?
Tim Dierkes
2:00
I think their agents are saying both guys are healthy right now, FWIW.  But they are not the same.  Odorizzi has never had an arm injury.  Paxton has never not had an arm injury.
Justin
2:01
Why is Brad Hand so low on your list?
Tim Dierkes
2:01
Well, all teams passing on Hand at 1/10 tells us something about his potential market.  Namely that it would be weird for him to get $10MM a year after that.
Rally Monkey
2:02
I agree with the Bauer to LAD pick. I also think that the Dodgers and Angels would lineup well in a Price trade. Maybe rekindle the Rengifo deal? Thoughts?
Tim Dierkes
2:02
Trading Price seems plausible enough.  I think it's worth keeping in mind that with a 34-year-old David Price after a year off and a 2019 season in which he pitched 107 innings, you can't exactly pencil him in for 150+.
Teebor
2:03
Any notable geographic preferences currently known for FAs?
Tim Dierkes
2:03
Just the Morton East Coast thing comes to mind for me.
grenadier
2:03
I was under the impression Molina and Wainwright were a package duo set to be auctioned off to the highest bidder
Tim Dierkes
2:04
I'm pretty skeptical that those two have to be a package deal.
JR
2:04
Great work on the Top 50 list! I know every fanbase is going to find nits to pick but it's always a fun read and this year is no exception. Thanks for the effort! Tangentially related to the FA list: do you see a lot of trades happening with teams trying to unload even moderately well paid guys? Obviously Lindor is most likely on the move but wondering if we see guys with even modest pay days like Jon Gray on the move. Any other trade candidates stick out as likely to you?
Tim Dierkes
2:04
Yes I do see many higher-salary guys being shopped.  Lindor and Bryant top the list.  Gray I think will get non-tendered.
George Springer
2:04
Is Detroit a spot for me? I could go back to my old manager, AJ.
Tim Dierkes
2:05
They can afford him, and they certainly have a spot for him.  So it's not crazy.  But if the team isn't ready to contend in 2021, then you're wasting a pricey Year 1 of the deal and paying for his age-32 and beyond seasons.
Buck
2:05
Mets are in the conversation with the top FA names, but how I havent heard much about relievers. We're losing Wilson and Hughes and could use some reliable arms, how do you feel about guys in the realm of Hand, O'Day, Osuna, Rosenthal etc.?
Tim Dierkes
2:06
The Mets have a lot of money into the bullpen already, but I can see Cohen not caring about previous mistakes.  So sure, they are easy to see snagging some good RPs.
Guest
2:06
Kris Bryant in pinstripes?
Tim Dierkes
2:07
Taking on a $20MM Kris Bryant, it's a somewhat risky, not entirely desirable thing for every team.  The Yanks seem happy with Urshela and should probably use Frazier as the LF, so I don't see where KB fits.
Jeremy
2:07
Bryant to the Jays... they need another OF/3B and then can keep Biggio and second
Tim Dierkes
2:07
It's a very reasonable fit.
Brian
2:07
Besides Cruz, see the Twins making any FA splash? Pitching comes to mind, still. I don't see May leaving the Twins....
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