You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 1/13/25
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Steve Adams
3:04
Seattle has like $15-16MM to spend, and in ten years as the team's president of baseball operations, Jerry Dipoto's biggest free agent deal for a hitter was Mitch Garver's two-year $24MM pact. It's the only time he's given multiple years to a free agent hitter.

I cannot fathom a scenario where the Mariners sign Bregman, but I like surprising outcomes and general baseball chaos so hey, I'd welcome the opportunity to be proven wrong.
Tigers
3:04
You said you red flags on Bregman in regards to signing him and Harris won't spend because he never has. That could be because the team was losing? It's frustrating as a fan how most insiders say what a great fit Bregman would be for Red Sox and don't see a fit for the tigers. Red Sox would have to move players around and possibly traded Casas. Tigers have 3rd base open clear. Jung was bad defense at 3rd last year
Steve Adams
3:06
I see a fit for the Tigers, I just don't think it's going to happen. Harris hasn't spent, and that could well be because of the team's status as a rebuilder in offseasons past. But even this year facing a clear need for rotation help, they signed Alex Cobb for a year. They've been tied to Bregman but not the bulk of notable free agent bats. All of Harris' public-facing comments -- which certainly aren't necessarily a true portrayal of his behind-the-scenes endeavors -- have been pretty measured.
Impatient Reds fan
3:06
Do you think the Reds have a better chance to sign Santander now?  This might be their chance. What hitter wouldn't want to improve their stock at GABP?  They also agreed to a new TV deal today that should give them a little more flexibility.
Steve Adams
3:08
I'd personally heard enough in conversations with people I know that gave me reason to be skeptical of how much more they'll spend -- and that was before president of baseball ops Nick Krall talked to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer about how trading the draft pick in the Lux deal largely offset the cost of adding his salary to the payroll.
You're talking like a $2.8MM draft slot and a $3.3MM salary and needing to move the former to acquire the latter...... that does not bode well for the Reds signing Santander, even if he's open to a short-term deal.
Which is a shame, because he's a good fit there.
3:10
Feels like they erred in their QO to Nick Martinez, thinking he'd reject, and were left with minimal payroll as a result. Either that or ownership pulled the rug out from under the front office after the winter began.

I'm not sure which, but I would presume the latter? If payroll's so tight that you're borrowing from the draft budget to pay a utility guy, I'm not sure how risking a $21.05MM salary for Martinez on Day 1 of the offseason was wise.
Blue Jays Fan
3:11
It feels like Alonso, Santander and Flaherty now being open to shorter term deals is basically them saying "We'd Rather Not Go to Toronto".  Am I wrong?
Steve Adams
3:12
Could also mean no one's bidding against Toronto and thus creating pressure to ramp up the Jays' offers. We know they made AN offer to Santander. We don't know that it was a good one. Could be that they saw no one was bidding anywhere close to the $100MMish he wants, and they came in at like 4/60 to see if he'd bite. That's entirely speculative, to be clear, but there are plenty of nuanced reasons why they might be willing to go short-term other than "Canada bad."
M’s Fan
3:13
Could a team offer to make Sasaki a free agent before his service time is up to sweeten the pot? Like offer to release him after 4 years? I feel this has happened in the distant past…
Steve Adams
3:14
Those kinds of clauses have been included with foreign "professionals" -- Yoenis Cespedes, for instance. I've not seen that for someone signing on an amateur deal. I don't know for sure, but I imagine MLB would view it as a means of circumventing the system that's in place.

It's not a scenario I've considered, because of course the team would want to have six full seasons of control. That clause would have to be expressly written into the contract, and I can't see MLB green-lighting it.
Curious A's Fan
3:15
Does Michael A. Taylor get an MLB contract?
Steve Adams
3:15
He was so bad at the plate last year. I think the glove is good enough that he should, but he only got $4MM last offseason on the heels of a much better year. I'll still say someone gives him like $2-3MM and a 40-man spot, but I won't be surprised if he takes a minor league deal.
V
3:16
Assuming he isn't extended, what does Vladi's market look like next year?
Steve Adams
3:18
Assuming he's A) Not extended and B) replicates/approximates his 2024 output, he's going to be looking for at least a decade and probably a good bit longer. He won't get Soto money and I'd cast doubt on $500MM, but a contract eclipsing a decade and starting with a 4 seems attainable.
Kirt
3:18
Have you ever played Strat-O-Matic or APBA?
Steve Adams
3:18
Grew up playing Strat with my dad in the late 80s and early 90s!
wvpirate
3:19
So many teams have cut payroll from the end of last year. Do you expect that to change with only about a month until Spring Training?
Steve Adams
3:20
There are teams right now that have a lower payroll than 2024 and who I expect to increase that mark still, sure. But some clubs (Padres, Twins, Rays, Cards) are pretty much destined to check in south of last year's levels.
lgm
3:20
would you have offered Pete Alonso to the 7 yr $158MM that he turned down 18 months ago? What would you predict the final compromised contract looks like in years and total $'s. Many believe a 3 yr with op-outs is the term but at what AAV?
Steve Adams
3:22
It's hard to say whether I'd have offered it. Looking at his resume as a whole, it's hard to overlook the downturn beginning in 2023. I can't recall how I honestly felt about his eventual earning power in June 2023. I expect that I would've said he was a decent bet to continue on at his 2019-22 pace and outearn the $158MM. Even though that hasn't happened, he still very well could come out ahead -- it'll just likely take multiple contracts.

If he does a short-term deal with the Mets, I think something like 85-90 over three years so he can comfortably say he topped Bellinger. Opt-outs after both seasons on the three-year term.
Mr RBI
3:22
Since Pressley’s option was picked up automatically, can the Astros offer a 2 year deal for 15-18 mil to get under the tax threshold?  He wants to stay in Houston and it should lower salary for cap to 7-9 mil over 2 years.
Steve Adams
3:24
Like two additional years at $15MM total? I'm not sure Pressly would take that. He's still quite good even if last year wasn't his best. Tacking on two years like that wouldn't reduce the AAV as much as you're implying, either. The vesting option is folded into the value of his original contract. He's now basically playing on a three-year, $42MM deal. Add on two years and $15MM, and it becomes a five-year, $57MM deal. You're taking the AAV from $14MM to $11.4MM. I don't think the $2.6MM shed from Houston's CBT ledger would be enough to convince them to do that, nor do I think Pressly would want to lock himself in at such a notable AAV cut.
Glenn
3:24
Does the Brewers deal with Diamond Sports affect their salary budget at all? Or is it not that much different than the deal they had with MLB?
Steve Adams
3:25
I don't have numbers on the deals, but MLB's deals have all come with lesser revenue than the teams were earning with Diamond/Bally. The Brewers' budget is extraordinarily tight this winter. Have to imagine they were hoping Rhys Hoskins would just rake for one season and then opt-out.
Steve (Adams) Cohen
3:25
Steve, can you please acknowledge for all of us watching your vast superiority in FA prediction to the rest of the staff? This crowd knows how much more WAR you're worth batting .233 than Tim's second best .200. And isn't each WAR worth like $7.5M/year on average?
Steve Adams
3:26
Yes I am the king of free agent predictions! Now everyone only look at my picks this year and please for the love of GOD do not look at my picks over the past few years, or my pre-2024 pick of the Mariners going to the World Series. Thanks.
3:27
Sasaki has now told the Rangers he will not be signing there, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News
dfredervan
3:27
Wouldn't Grichuk be a great fit on the Reds, given his talent and reasonably low cost?
Steve Adams
3:28
Grichuk would be a good fit lots of places. I don't think the Reds are going to outbid the field for him, for reasons I alluded to earlier regarding their payroll. But yes, on paper, Grichuk fits them nicely
Ben
3:29
What is the White Sox best path forward at 3B?
Steve Adams
3:30
Hope you hit on a 3B in the draft or get one in a trade of Robert or another veteran. Otherwise Bryan Ramos had a pretty discouraging 2024, but he's still only 22.

Josh Rojas is a fine stopgap for now, but the outlook organization-wide is pretty bleak.
Brad
3:32
Do you think the Rays are set at shortstop for 2025? I know the front office says they believe in Taylor Walls for his glove and they have Jose Caballero to play shortstop when he’s not being used as a utility man. There has been some armchair GM speculation that the Rays and Ha-Seong Kim’s camp could make something materialize, but do you see that as likely, considering the Rays probably don’t want to pay close to 8 figures for a player that will start on the IL, even on a one year deal.
Steve Adams
3:34
I don't think, given the Rays' stadium situation, that they're likely to shell out the money Kim is looking for when he won't even be ready for Opening Day.

Everyone's just keeping the seat warm for Carson Williams anyhow, and raked in Double-A last season. Opening the year with Walls/Caballero (and Osleivis Basabe) as a bridge to Williams doesn't seem far-fetched.
Dan S.
3:34
What is Robert Suarez’s trade value? His ERA has been very good in two of the last three seasons; FIP/xFIP not so much. Middling peripherals but his stuff rates out well. Mid-30s, late bloomer, reasonable contract if he performs but also an opt-out. Seems like a tough one to assess.
Steve Adams
3:36
So he's guaranteed $10MM this season with a two-year, $16MM player option. He has to decide on the 2026-27 seasons simultaneously, within five days of this year's World Series ending.

In effect, he's promised three years and $26MM. But the acquiring team knows that if he pitches well in 2025, they're really only getting him at one year and $10MM. The main way 2026-27 come into play is if he pitches poorly or gets hurt. Essentially, they're committing to 3/26 but HOPING it's only 1/10. That's not ideal.
3:38
I do still think a team might be willing to take the chance. Suarez's raw stuff is outrageous. His swinging-strike and whiff rates portend more K's in the tank. And acquiring him is no riskier than, say, signing Robert Stephenson or Jeff Hoffman for 3/33 as we've seen the past two seasons, or than signing Tanner Scott for $60MM+ right now.

But acquiring him and giving up prospects of note is a tougher sell. In general, opt-outs really kneecap a team's leverage in trade talks. I could see Suarez being moved, but only if the Padres are OK doing so for a pretty minimal return.
The Mariners signed Donovan Solano to a 1-year deal
3:39
That's not going to get fans very excited, but he's a fine cheap platoon partner for Raley at first base (or for another lefty 1B if they acquire one via trade). And he leaves more money to spend on a 3B upgrade if they can find a palatable one.
Connecting…