JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat

Trade Value Series Chat

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Mike Elias

10:27

It's a bit of a crazy question I know.... but do you think Mike Elias would trade Adley or Gunnar for Corbin Carroll? I would say no.

Ben Clemens

10:27

No, but I don't think Mike Hazen would trade Carroll for either of them either

Travis

10:28

Statistically in their careers, Michael Harris and J-Rod are extremely comparable, while Harris is also a better defender. Harris has a significantly more team friendly contract, albeit on less years. What makes Harris 15 and J-Rod 3? Is it just the physical tools?

Ben Clemens

10:28

Yeah more or less, and I think that the batted ball data bears out Julio's tool grades power wise, which gives me more comfort there

FlockO

10:28

Was there any consideration for Grayson making the list? rough start to his career but imagine a lot of teams are still extremely high on him

Ben Clemens

10:29

I"m sure they are, and not really no

There's a lot of room to have value in trade and not be one of the top 50 trade values in baseball

Particularly when the top 35 or so are guys who are just great and never getting dealt

10:30

There are like 15 slots for mid-tier dudes and if you think my process for which mid-tier dudes I rank is anything other than educated guessing, sad news

I think I'm decent at guessing no doubt, but I also like to represent some of a few different types of player, and I'm sure you could rearrange big chunks of the list however you like and I'd struggle to argue with you

ScottW

10:30

Ben, thank you for your work on the list this year. Question on relievers: is there some baseline performance that one would need to make it into even the HM category? Someone like Bautista (18 K/9 !)or Alexis Diaz with 4+ years of control seems like they would fetch a pretty penny, no?

Ben Clemens

10:31

So, maybe some GM's would disagree, but I'll tell you why I didn't put any relievers on the list

I don't really care as much about team control for them

Their half-life as effective players is just lower. Look at the best relievers from five years ago, and it's less consistent with the best hitters and starters for them

There's kinda effectiveness decay

10:32

So being around for longer doesn't move the needle for me as much

10:32

I do really enjoy this exercise, but given that it's a "trade value" series just before the deadline, why not do the top 50 players by trade value who could realistically be dealt? It doesn't tell me much for this trade deadline when the vast majority of these players are available. Feels like this makes more sense in the off-season.

Ben Clemens

10:32

Blame the historical time we've done this and the fact that more eyes are on baseball in-season

This is one of the big-ticket series we do every year (free agent rankings, top 100 prospects, and this in some order I think) so putting it at a time when people are thinking about baseball is good

10:33

I do always think it's funny that it's called trade value and no one is trading for Acuna, though

RTJ

10:33

When making this list, which player ended up surprising you the most in terms of where they ended up? Either a player that ended up higher than you would have assumed or the opposite

Ben Clemens

10:33

I left Vlad off the top 50 on my first cut

10:34

I"m not sure if that answers your question exactly

Bert

10:34

I’m a little surprised Gore didn’t sneak onto the backend of the list. Are you concerned about his ability to stay consistent?

Ben Clemens

10:34

Hey, his two seasons look extremely consistent!

4.50 ERA in '22, 4.59 in '23

10:35

Uh, no, I think he's a solid pitcher and I'm sure the Nats have big plans for him but he did not come close

Guest

10:35

If Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras keep hitting like they have been all year do they move into the top 50 next year? Duran played some really good SS earlier this year during Seagers injury, but has now been relegated to DH which seems to have effected his hitting. Taveras seems to have finally put it all together, and has improved across the board and finally showing he has some power.

Ben Clemens

10:37

yeah, if Duran keeps up this pace for another year he'll look liek a totally different player. I don't particularly think he will, it kinda feels like a hot streak to me, but performing really well is a godo way to raise your stock

I'm very interested in Taveras, I always thought his underlying perfomrnace suggested there was more in his bat and I love his defense

Theo be Praised

10:38

What is the closest to release of the Top Trade Value series that someone on their was actually traded? And did the return match the value? Maybe, Soto last year?

Ben Clemens

10:38

Yeah Soto last year, and I'd say his return suggested I pushed him a bit too high but not by much

10:39

The Padres basically blew up a good farm system to get him, a bunch of top prospects including some ready right away guys, biggest trade in recent memory

But I think that's more of a 10-20 kind of return, like if someone offered that to the O's for Gunnar they'd say no

Suggests that the process is right but that there's fine-tuning to do on the merits

or sorry, on the exact inputs

PJR

10:40

Alvarez's projections sure look a lot more like those inside the top 10 than those in the 20s. You cite the positional risk, but is the state of catcher defensive metrics not more trustworthy than infielders? And is the positional risk really larger than the risk of simply "being a pitcher"

Ben Clemens

10:41

If this were a projections-only thing, it'd be a lot less interesting. His projections are great, when I fed ZiPS into my spreadsheet and came up with a rough list he was higher. I think the risk that he's an average or below average catcher in the long run is more real than ZiPS suggests, and its positional values are pretty binary and weird at time

at times

Like it had Buxton much higher, but if he's a DH it's totally different

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat