JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

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Ben Clemens

12:55

two years ago people though Kelenic was a better prospect than Rodriguez

true talent is always changing, our estimation of true talent is alwyas changing, I don't find it surprising at all that lists change a ton from year to year

Smoke

12:55

If they're all 4-5 WAR players, why would you choose Buxton or Tucker over Witt/Adley who are in their first year?

Ben Clemens

12:55

Buxton's ceiling is higher, Tucker's floor is higher

12:56

if you told me they'd all produce at the same level going forward, that would make it easier

obviously

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:56

To play devil's advocate, and I'm not sure how much I buy this, the top 10 players being international also hints at how much earlier these players start getting paid compared to drafted players, which leaves a much bigger pie for both player and team. So yes, the surplus value on the Franco deal is enormous for TB, but you've also argued that he did very well for himself there, and teenage-signing Franco almost certainly earns more over his career than drafted Franco.

Ben Clemens

12:56

Yeah, this is definitely a reasonable counter-point, and I'm glad I don't have to come up with an equitable system, b/c that would be very hard to do

Rickety Cricket

12:56

Would some teams worry about giving Soto a huge extension given that he's played so much from a young age? Do teams see guys with MLB caliber bodies in their teens as being more likely to breakdown quickly?

Ben Clemens

12:56

I have no idea, I'll level with you

Appa Yip Yip

12:57

More Alejandro Kirk q bc I love him: he obviously comes with above average injury risk due to body composition, so is he kind of in this weird place where he's most valuable to a team that already has a quality #1 behind the dish? Like a team without a good primary backstop might be tempted to play him back there more than they should, and spike the risk of a soft tissue injury?

Ben Clemens

12:57

That seems reasonable to me. The tricky part of it, though, is that catcher is a spot where being able to crouch there REALLY swings your value

LIke, if you can have Kirk catch and DH Lourdes or whatever, that's a big improvement over...

well dangit Danny Jansen is hitting really well right now

12:58

But generally speaking, catchers are so bad at offense that plenty of Kirk's value is that he lets you replace a catcher with a DH in the lineup

YorDaddy

12:58

Where would Shohei rank on this list if he was two separate players as a pitcher and a DH (maybe a decent OF)?

Ben Clemens

12:58

I think he'd be just off of it, but only b/c his contract is up so soon. Maybe Shohei the pitcher would be int he back end of the top 50

I think Shohei the pitcher is a top 10 pitcher in baseball

TKDC

12:58

Does Kirk have higher injury risk? Didn’t John Kruk put it best: you can’t pull fat.

Sorry, John Daly said you can’t pull fat, not John Kruk

Ben Clemens

12:59

I have no idea! But catchers have higher injury risk, and you want Kirk for the bat not the glove, so I think it's a reasonable question overall

Ben

12:59

Do people around baseball think Vlad Jr. is going to make a huge leap? I just don't get total unanimity on him over Austin Riley when Riley has been a decent bit better over the past four years.

Ben Clemens

12:59

Do you mean over the past 1 year?

I don't.... like... Vlad almost won the MVP last year

1:00

Riley has been better this year, for sure

But he was exactly replacement level in 2019 and 2020 combined and a lot of people were saying he was a bust

they were both kinda non-factors before 2021, Vlad had the better '21, Riley has the better '22

YorDaddy

1:00

How much would Yordan would have to improve as a fielder to get the top spot? Maybe in terms of existing players' defense?

Ben Clemens

1:01

I don't think it's really that; I don't think him being an average left fielder would move the needle for me all that much, and I don't see him becoming a premium defender anywhere

I think a better question is how well he'd have to hit. If he puts up this line over the next year, so finishes 2022 with a 202 wRC+ and has a 202 wRC+ next July

he's a slam dunk #1

Deep Freaking Value

1:01

Going back to that Chapman for Torres trade, how much differently do we think of Theo's Cubs tenure if they don't win the World Series that year?

Ben Clemens

1:02

Fine, one non-top-50 question

A lot! But I think they might also have acted differently in subsequent years so it's a tough counterfactual

Guest

1:02

Are you underrating injury concerns? A big long contract for a guy who has knee or shoulder issues seems rife with potential downside.

Ben Clemens

1:03

I obviously think that I am not, you obviously think that I am. I don't know where to land on that other than saying that I've certainly considered them, and I do think that the Tatis rating implies a return to the field, which I noted

1:04

But yeah, it's a very real factor

If there were no injury risk with Tatis he'd be a slam dunk #1 though

Like... dude has played at an MVP level every season he's played, impressive bat and improving defense at a premium position, under contract forever

YorDaddy

1:04

Does marketability of the player come into play at all? With someone like Shohei you'd instantly gain a 100 million fans. That's tangible addition to the bottom line.

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