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Dave Cameron
12:41
A good bit less. Teams pay a closer premium.
Bip
12:42
Delmon Young was a crazy good hitter in the minors though, and Brown wasn't even that, was he?
Dave Cameron
12:43
Not really; he didn't actually hit that well in AAA, he was just very young for the level. His career AAA OPS was .791.
Geebs
12:43
Have you always thought that Dominic Brown was an overrated prospect or did you reassess once he made it to the majors and you got a better look at his skill set?
Dave Cameron
12:43
I was never a huge fan. That type of player is the one that is most often overrated on prospect lists.
I'd throw Jesus Montero into that mix too.
Phillies113
12:45
I disagree that Brown was wildly overrated. I think the Phillies colossally screwed up his development and ruined his confidence, constantly calling him up and sending him down whenever he hinted at being bad. He had the talent, but once his confidence got shaken, his skills deteriorated to where they are now.
Dave Cameron
12:46
It's possible, though you wouldn't think that defense should be affected that much, and part of why he sucks is that he can't play the outfield. Given his defensive limitations, he'd have had to be a monster hitter to justify the hype, and he just never really looked like a monster hitter.
Doug
12:47
You said in an article that the Angels need a spring trade, any specific players you'd like to see them target?
Dave Cameron
12:47
Chris Coghlan would have made a lot of sense for them.
I'm not sure why they're being so passive.
Mike S.
12:48
Re: Nick's Q. How about looking at player earnings vs. country of origin. Control for WAR and player age etc. and you've got a nice little paper on foreign worker discrimination.
Dave Cameron
12:48
I'm pretty sure Matt Swartz did that for THT last year.
BakedBean
12:49
Thoughts on the impending Reyes suspension? I think the book is going to come down extra hard, like half-full season suspension.
Dave Cameron
12:49
Agreed. I don't think we're going to see Reyes play in 2016.
Biscuit
12:50
Relocating the family across country to Seattle for a new job opportunity (with a healthy retirement plan). My wife has about 100K in retirement funds and will get about 55K lump sum severance pay. We have a 1 year old daughter that she'd love to stay home with until school age. What do you think about taking her retirement and severance (plus about 40K equity) and sinking it into a house, allowing me to pay the mortgage and her to stay home?
Dave Cameron
12:50
This is a lifestyle question more than a financial one, but in general, I think taking your retirement savings and sinking it into a house is a bad idea.
But it depends entirely on how much value you place on having her home during those years.
a eskpert
12:51
You might look at physical size of athletes, Nick. We often discuss how scouts/front offices might have bias towards Taller pitchers and indirectly for taller hitters through their preference for power over defense. Perhaps they are undercompensated relative to their performance?
Dave Cameron
12:51
There have been a lot of studies about height in regards to pitchers, but I haven't seen one with position players. Could be a fun study.
Sirras
12:51
Re: tax exempt status - accountant speaking. The players are still getting W-2 forms. They put that on their personal returns. That half-billion Bryce may get is absolutely taxable income
Dave Cameron
12:52
Yeah, that question was referring to the owner's anti-trust exemption, I think. But it's weird how people see raises in player salaries and immediately think that it's not the result of huge increases in revenues for the even richer owners.
Joe
12:52
Since chapman is set to lose ~35 days of service time would a 15 day dl stint cause him to miss free agency?
Dave Cameron
12:52
No, you get service time while on the DL.
Sean
12:52
What do you think are the percent chances that a salary floor is imposed?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Almost zero.
el gasino
12:53
if you could take the best hitters and put them on a team with the worst pitchers, then take the best pitchers and put them on a team with the worst hitters (but they play the best defense), who would win more games?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Assuming the hitters can also play defense, the hitters. Position players are more valuable.
Bork
12:53
Wouldn't Farrell have his talent held against him too? Panda/Hanley returning to non-terrible status alone will be a boon to the Red Sox.
Dave Cameron
12:53
If those guys return to form, he'll get credit for helping rejuvenate them.
Nelson
12:54
Why does MLB need to punish players for off-field activities (RE: Chapman) more than the law punishes them?
Dave Cameron
12:55
Because they represent the league, and their public actions have a direct impact on the league's ability to promote itself. Anyone who has an employer knows there are things we can't do that are not illegal. I could do a huge number of things that I wouldn't get arrested for but would still get me fired from FanGraphs.
Johnny5Alive
12:55
The bryce harper question - at what point will salaries get so high (and concomitant with that, prices) - that people start to tune out? My dad stopped watching baseball when guys started making millions, and while I didn't understand it at the time, some of these salaries are getting ridiculous.
Dave Cameron
12:56
So you're okay with the billionaires who own the team making more money, but not the millionaires you actually watch play on a nightly basis? The money is going to go somewhere.
Matt E G
12:57
What's the best way to tell if a player that consistently has a high BABIP is not getting lucky? Or is a high BABIP always luck even if it is consistently high?
Dave Cameron
12:58
The primary drivers of sustained high BABIPs are batted ball profiles and speed. So if a guy hits a ton of line drives, he can probably run a .350 BABIP for a long time. Or if a guy can bunt and has great bat control to use the whole field, and can beat out infield singles, same thing. But if you have a pull-heavy flyball guy running a .325+ BABIP, that's probably not going to last.
Scott
12:59
Have you taken a look at the Vegas O/U win projections? Any that stand out to you as a good bet?
Dave Cameron
12:59
I think they had the Dodgers at 89; I'd happily take the over on that.
Kimball
1:00
For Nick, might be interesting to examine the persistence of homogeneity in management (both field and FO) despite the diversification of the workforce. Lots of non-sports research out there; on the sports side it's more anecdotal/arm-chair analysis.
Russell
1:00
Nick paper suggestion; Not sure what time frame you need to work with, but it seems like there should be a decent and interesting amount of info about salary structure/other quantifiable changes to the game around the time of integration.
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